Canadians’ real-estate exuberance may be fading

The share of Canadians who predict home prices will rise over the next six months fell to 38 percent this month, the lowest since April, according to Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. The Nanos survey found 48.1 percent of respondents predict prices will remain unchanged, the most since February, and 11.5 percent forecast a drop, matching the average this year.

Home sales and prices had shown unexpected strength as the lowest mortgage rates in decades spur demand. Forecasts for housing starts were raised to the highest this year in monthly Bloomberg News surveys of analysts taken this month. 

The Canadian Real Estate Association said home sales rose 1.8 percent in August from July, the seventh straight monthly gain, led by sales in Toronto and Vancouver.

Source:  http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/9/15/Canadians-real-estate-exuberance-may-be-fading-poll.aspx

Canadian home sales rose 0.8% from June to July

According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity increased almost one per cent in July 2014 from the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase and the highest level for sales since March 2010.

For the year-to-date, sales activity is up 4.7 per cent compared to the first seven months of 2013 and in line with the 10-year average for the period.

Two-storey single family homes continued to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.32 per cent), followed closely by one-storey single family homes (+5.47 per cent) and townhouse/row units (+5.33 per cent). Price growth for apartment units was comparatively more modest (+3.18 per cent). 

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2014 was $401,585, up five per cent from the same month last year.

The national average price continues to be skewed upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada's largest and most expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $327,988 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to four per cent.

Source: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1398626/canadian-home-sales-edge-higher-in-july

Is Canadian Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

According to Dan Werner of Morningstar, the Canadian real estate market is seriously overvalued and Canada could see a 30% nationwide decline in the price of houses.

Canadian debt-to-equity ratios look awfully similar to U.S. numbers at the top of its market, as 23% of Canadian homeowners have a debt-to-value ratio of greater than 80%. The number in the U.S. at its peak was 22%. Werner also cites evidence that many Canadian borrowers can’t handle higher interest rates. More than 2.5 million have used the RRSP to help out with funding the down payment. This loan must be repaid over time, or else the recipient has to pay tax on the proceeds. In recent years, a full 25% of Canadians couldn’t afford to pay their RRSP loans back.

Source: http://www.fool.ca/2014/07/15/is-canadian-real-estate-a-ticking-time-bomb/

Housing Starts in St. Catharines-Niagara up in June

Housing starts in the St. Catharines-Niagara Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending higher at 1,294 units in June compared to 1,208 in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

"The higher trend for starts in June shows signs of a sustained recovery post 2009. Once again, actual starts for June and year-to-date were up from a year ago. This strength is attributable to a tighter resale market in which choices were limited. The greater gains posted in multi-unit homes than in single-detached homes shows that the more affordable home types were more popular," said Alberto Mendoza, CMHC`s Market Analyst.

http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/956474e.pdf

Source: http://dcnonl.com/nw/36575/re

Canadian consumer confidence rises

Canadian consumer confidence rises as real estate outlook surges

As the housing starts rose to their strongest level in seven months in May, preceded by a decline in construction in the first three months of the year (Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp.), Canadian consumer confidence rose and so the percentage of respondents who believe home values in their neighborhood will increase in the next six months, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2009.

Although Canada’s economic growth slowed in the first quarter as the harsh winter slowed housing construction, business spending and exports, and expanded less than economists forecast in April, it remained appropriate for the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 1 percent, in view of the economy’s “modest” pace of growth (Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz).

Source: BNN (Business News Network)

Average House Prices up 7.1%

Average house price in Canada rose 7.1% in May

Comparing with same time last year, average house prices in Canada rose 7.1 percent to $416,584 in May, according to Canadian Real Estate Association.

More than that, the real estate market went up 5.9 percent from April to May in terms of volume of sales. This represent the most significant monthly jump in almost four years.

Based on this data, Canadian Real Estate Association upped its forecast for how many homes it expects to be sold this year.
Canadian home sales hit an all-time high of more than 520,000 in 2007. They have remained in a range of either just above 450,000 or just below that level every year since then.

Source: 

May 2014 Housing Starts in St. Catharines-Niagara

Housing starts in the St. Catharines-Niagara Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending lower at 1,210 units in May compared to 1,263 in April, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

St. Catharines-Niagara CMA Housing Starts

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link:
Preliminary Housing Starts Tables 

Source: http://dcnonl.com/nw/36387/re